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Trade imbalance 72H policy-release thesis

Signal intake -> scenario path -> 72H review.

Today Downgrade the thesis if trade language cools, bilateral negotiations absorb the pressur…
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SignalRadar is a forecast workspace for people who track markets, policy, and narratives. Bring a question; it watches global sources, builds 24h / 72h / 7d scenarios, flags what changed, and records whether the thesis worked.

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Lead path

Trade imbalance 72H policy-release thesis

Downgrade the thesis if trade language cools, bilateral negotiations absorb the pressur…

Live intake youtube_bloomberg_tv / reddit_geopolitics / youtube_cnbc

Market-sample density is still building; use validation before acting.

Validation points
  • ai ×113
  • tech ×74
  • china ×16
Impact assets
  • other
  • macro
  • equity
  • fx
Turn this into a saved thesis radar
01 Market Radar

Global news, policy, macro, cross-asset, and social signals compressed into what changed today.

Open market readout
02 Thesis Engine

Turn a messy event cluster into scenarios, assumptions, probability shifts, and invalidation points.

View sample thesis
03 Review Ledger

Close the loop by tracking what the system believed, what happened, and what should change next time.

Open review layer
Product loop

One question becomes a monitored forecast.

The product is not another news wall. It is a repeatable research loop: define the question, monitor sources, update scenarios, and review the result when the window closes.

01 Ask

Save a question like “Will energy volatility spill into inflation expectations this week?”

02 Watch

The radar tracks news, policy, macro releases, market signals, and social acceleration around that question.

03 Infer

It produces a base case, extension case, break case, signposts, and what would invalidate the read.

04 Review

The ledger checks the outcome after 24h / 72h / 7d so the system gets stricter instead of louder.

Best for People who already have questions, not people who want a headline feed.

Macro traders, market commentators, founders, analysts, and creators who need to explain what may happen next before consensus catches up.

Daily output Brief -> thesis -> alert -> review.

A compact morning read, live thesis changes, concrete signposts, and a forced post-mortem when the forecast window ends.

Why it is different It remembers its own predictions.

Most tools optimize for more information. SignalRadar optimizes for accountable inference and better future reads.

Advanced / Research Ops Source health, AI cache, fetchers, review memory, and diagnostic panels are still here, but they no longer dominate the homepage. Open research ops
Research Ops Snapshot
Stay in watch mode

Watch mode on Trade imbalance 72H policy-release thesis. Entry mode: Wait for confirmation. Posture: Observe only. Next catalyst: U.S. CPI / PPI / retail sales window (In 16h).

Watch Observe only Wait for confirmation
Thin thesis Not required primary Recheck inside 4 hours
Posture Watch

Observe only · Wait for confirmation

Thesis memory Thin

1/5 signposts · Base 46 / Break 39 · Evidence 1.0

Primary sources Not required

No U.S. primary-source lane in the current shell.

Backtest memory Neutral

41 labeled rows

Probe readiness 43.8
Early

Probe posture is still early.

Gate 73.0
Unlock 38.1
Market confirmation 86.2
Crowding 74.0
Catalyst risk 66.0
Commit blocker score 99.8
Hard stop

Commit is blocked.

Gate 27.0
Unlock 64.7
Market confirmation 13.8
Crowding 24.0
Catalyst risk 34.0
Commit confirmation 20.3
Blocked

Commit is still blocked by hard confirmation checks.

Gate 0
Unlock 0
Market confirmation 0
Cross-market 100
Depth 0
Crowding 100
Cross-market Warming

2/2 aligned · persist 62.0

Qlib feedback Neutral

41 rows · probe 0.2

Primary Source Rail Not required
-- Official confirmation

Current execution shell does not depend on U.S. primary-source coverage.

No U.S. primary-source lane in the current shell.
Why Watch
  • Gate score 54.4 is still below the watch threshold 74.4.
  • Early-unlock score 29.7 still needs to clear 78.0 before probe risk is clean.
Why Not Commit Yet
  • Gate is still missing: Cushion -20.1.
  • Unlock is still missing: 29.7 / 84.0.
Probe Candidates
  • Starter shell warming The public layer keeps direction only. Detailed source traces stay inside the research workspace.
Market Radar

A compact public regime feed. The saved workspace ranks it against your watchlists, thesis questions, and alert rules.

Request beta access youtube_bloomberg_tv / reddit_geopolitics / youtube_cnbc
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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/19 01:00 macro

Is AI making inflation harder to beat? #shorts #ai #inflation #fed

Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the recent change in the inflation narrative, as broader pressures from AI investment, geopolitical shocks and changes under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could mean more volatility and higher nominal rates https://bloom.bg/4hjoYZm

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 22:11 other

Earthquake Deepens Venezuela's Political Crisis

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Can America Actually Build Trump’s Golden Fleet?

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Trump's Endorsement Reshapes South Carolina Race

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 21:38 macro

Iran Standoff Reshapes Global Energy Flows

US pressure on Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping global energy markets and forcing businesses to reassess supply chain risks. At the Aspen Security Forum, Bloomberg News' David Gura spoke with experts who say markets have remained resilient thanks to strategic petroleum reserves, alternative...

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 21:11 equity

US, Iran Trade Strikes With No End in Sight

Despite President Donald Trump's assertions that the US is prevailing, tit-for-tat strikes continue between the US and Iran. Bloomberg News Diplomacy & National Security Correspondent Courtney McBride and Bloomberg News Senior White House Correspondent Josh Wingrove join David Gura and Christina Ruffini on Bloomberg...

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 20:30 equity

SpaceX Shares Down After Post-IPO Starship Launch Fail

Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Businessweek Columnist, discusses recent losses for Elon Musk's SpaceX including a scrubbed launch and a slide in shares that equates to roughly $1T in valuations. He also talks about the "identity crisis" happening at Elon Musk's Chatbot Company.

YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 20:29 other

FIFA NYNJ CEO on World Cup’s ‘Massive’ Economic Impact

Alex Lasry, CEO of the FIFA World Cup 2026 NYNJ Host Committee, discussed preparations for the upcoming World Cup final, describing it as a unique and unprecedented event. Lasry highlighted the diverse and high-profile nature of the event, comparing it to a combination of a mini United Nations and the Oscars, due to...

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The Opportunity Cost of Cautious Investing: Lynam

Amanda Lynam, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs, joins Scarlet Fu and Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money." They discuss using bonds as part of personal financial plans, the advent of Trump Accounts compared to traditional portfolios, and the opportunity cost of being defensive when investing in bonds. -------- Mor...

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We May Have to Cut Social Security Benefits: Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, joins Scarlet Fu and Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money." They discuss the need to raise the age for retirement, potentially cutting social security benefits, and how the AI revolution could increase the need for universal basic income. -------- More on Bloomberg Televisi...

AI
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The Stock Market As America's Retirement Plan

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 20:27 equity

Bullish on Books: Tom and Scarlet's Must-Read Market Books

Scarlet Fu and Tom Keene discuss their must-read book on this weeks edition of "Bloomberg Money." They discuss 'The Trading Game: A Confession by Gary Stevenson' and 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre' -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notificat...

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Smoke, Heat and Floods Batter North America

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Is AI Making Inflation Harder to Beat?

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Chinese AI Model Raises Pressure on US Spending

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Sunwin Bus Showcases Green Mobility Solutions at Australasia Bus & Coach Expo 2026, Deepening Commitment to Australia's Zero-Emission Bus Market

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Eternal Founder Eyes Wellness Device Launch

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 12:00 china

Xi Promises AI for All

China’s Xi Jinping made his debut at the country's top tech summit, urging for more inclusive AI development. But his presence alone conveys a potent signal of Beijing's ambitions in the AI field and global governance of the tech.

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Mexico’s New Ambassador on ‘Balance of Power’

Roberto Lazzeri, Mexico's new Ambassador to the United States, discussed the upcoming round of negotiations on the potential renewal of the USMCA trade agreement, scheduled for the following week. Lazzeri also addressed key bilateral issues including U.S.

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Covey: Race To Win Control of House Remains Competitive

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New York City FC CEO: FIFA Will Expand Soccer Fan Base

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Bloomberg Money 7/17/2026

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 04:01 equity

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Hingham Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 02:41 other

Roubini Says AI and Robots Are Coming For Your Jobs

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 02:31 other

Trump Sows Doubts About US Elections

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GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_EARNINGS 07/18 02:11 equity

nVent Electric plc to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on July 31

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/18 01:37 other

Apple in Early Settlement Talks With DOJ Over Antitrust Case

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GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_PRESENTATIONS 07/18 00:22 macro

Perspective Therapeutics Announces Acceptance of VMT-α-NET Data for Oral Presentation at the ESMO Congress 2026

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GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_EARNINGS 07/18 00:00 equity

Final Results

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GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_PRESENTATIONS 07/17 23:51 equity

Gaumont - Dépôt du projet de note en réponse à l'offre publique de retrait

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 23:00 other

Jason Wenk on the Importance of Learning AI

Barry speaks with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian for independent financial advisors. They discuss how Jason started the company and his plans to change asset management.

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 22:57 macro

Consumers More Confident, But Fear Inflation, Hsu Says

The University of Michigan says consumers are feeling better, but they're still worried about rising inflation. The latest survey shows sentiment at a five-month high, but consumers still expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.2% over the next year.

YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 22:54 other

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GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_PRESENTATIONS 07/17 22:42 macro

Compass Therapeutics Announces Tovecimig Data Accepted for an Oral Presentation at the ESMO Congress 2026

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GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_PRESENTATIONS 07/17 22:25 macro

Immatics Announces Upcoming Presentations Across Its PRAME Franchise at ESMO Congress 2026

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Trump Says China, Other Rivals Can Compromise Elections

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 22:14 macro

How El Niño Threatens India’s Economy and Food Prices

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 22:12 china

China's Xi Says AI Needs Human Oversight

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China AI
YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 22:11 equity

China's New AI Fuels Tech Rout

A surprise breakthrough from a Chinese artificial intelligence startup rippled through global markets Friday, sending AI and semiconductor stocks sharply lower. The catalyst was Moonshot’s new Kimi K3 model, which the company said rivals the strongest offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic PBC.

China AI Semiconductors
YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 22:10 rates

Connecticut Water Agency’s $2.4B Bond Sale Is a Blowout

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 22:05 commodities

Jeff Currie Says Situation in Energy Is ‘Dire'

Jeffrey Currie discusses the current complexities in the oil market. He highlighted that despite one of the highest crack spreads since the mid-1980s, crude oil futures have softened due to significant disruptions.

Oil
GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_EARNINGS 07/17 22:00 equity

Bitget Uses AI to Connect Crypto and Wall Street Ahead of Earnings Season

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GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_PRESENTATIONS 07/17 21:53 macro

Rafferty Domnick Cunningham & Yaffa Leaders to Share Insights on AI, Emerging Liability, Medical Malpractice, and Law Firm Operations at AAJ Annual Convention in Chicago

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YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 21:28 macro

Miran Says He Gave Trump Advice on Picking New Fed Chair

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United States
YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 21:17 equity

We're In Third Inning of AI Revolution, Ives Says

Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives & Co., talks about the recent rout in AI and semiconductor stocks, the new AI models coming out of China and his new role. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video?

China AI Semiconductors
YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 21:11 equity

China Hits Back at Trump Election Meddling Claims | The Pulse 7/17/2026

China has called President Donald Trump's allegations of election interference “purely fabricated” and “malicious smears.” Trump's accusations threaten to upend ties with the world’s second-biggest economy as he focuses on securing a victory in the midterms in November. Nasdaq futures tumbled as the global selloff i...

China United States
YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 20:46 other

Tucker Carlson on Donald Trump and Iran

"Trump has been disloyal to the United States." Tucker Carlson tells Mishal Husain the Iran war has exposed a Republican Party that no longer represents its voters. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video?

United States
GLOBENEWSWIRE_IR_PRESENTATIONS 07/17 20:35 macro

American Critical Minerals to Present at the Precious Metals & Critical Minerals Virtual Investor Conference on July 23rd

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, July 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- American Critical Minerals Corp. (“American Critical Minerals” or the “Company”) (CSE:KCLI | OTCQB:APCOF | Frankfurt:2P30) based in Vancouver, BC and focused on its Green River Project in Utah’s highly productive Paradox Basin, today announced that Dean ...

United States
YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 20:22 other

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Draws Crowds in Tokyo

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang drew crowds in Tokyo after meeting the Japanese companies that power the global AI supply chain. He even stopped to hand out red bean cakes as fans gathered for a glimpse of him.

AI
YOUTUBE_BLOOMBERG_TV 07/17 20:20 equity

Netflix Shares Fall as Sales Forecast Disappoints

Eric Clark, Accuvest Global Advisors CIO, reacts to Netflix's earnings report and discusses the future for streaming platforms. Bloomberg's Geetha Ranganathan also joins to talk about the future of Netflix after it recording its second consecutive quarter of slowing growth sales.