Thesis Engine
SignalRadar Information + Forecast Radar
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Sample Thesis / 72H Forecast Radar
Public sample thesis This page shows how the public radar frames a live path before it turns into a saved-question hit or alert. Use it to inspect theme, path, validation, and evidence without opening the full research workspace.
01 Event framing 02 Thesis build 03 Scenario map 04 Validation 05 Evidence log
Lead thesis Trade-imbalance release path Status Active

Trade imbalance 72H policy-release thesis

The latest thesis update is still being prepared.

-- 2026-07-13
Open audit layer Request beta access Pricing
Path Trade-imbalance release path

Keep the dominant 72H route visible before opening branches.

Validation 0 checks

Track the few signals that can confirm, weaken, or break the thesis.

Impact 4 transmission links

Watch where the path is landing first before broadening the map.

Object Live

Standardize the scenario only after the thesis surface is coherent enough.

Thesis confidence
78%
Current status
Active
Protocol layer
Event object live
Event framing
Lead thesis
Trade-imbalance release path
Active · public thesis object

The latest thesis update is still being prepared.

Trade imbalance Tariff risk
Origin event
Pending
-- · 2026-07-13

The network starts from an event object, not from a price move.

Strategic horizon
Pending

Strategic horizon is still being assembled.

Crowding watch
Under watch

Track market positioning and community heat before changing the thesis.

Event cluster
Pending

Cluster isolated observations into one event regime before ranking scenarios.

Review cadence
Continuous watch

Keep the thesis under watch until new confirmation or invalidation signals arrive.

Thesis build

Turn the forecast object into staged reasoning, not a one-line call

Event ingest Thesis attribution Risk review

A 72H radar is only useful if users can inspect how a thesis forms. This section turns the conclusion into a visible build sequence before it becomes a watchlist-ranked event.

Step 1
Origin event

Event signal

Extract the live event that starts the thesis clock.

  • Identify the origin record.
  • Keep the 72H window explicit.
Step 2
Lead thesis

Dominant path

Separate the lead path from adjacent noise before opening branches.

  • Rank the dominant driver.
  • Keep weaker themes in the watch lane.
Step 3
Transmission

Signal chain

Map the first pressure point, release path, and market transmission.

  • Track the first pressure point.
  • Watch whether transmission broadens.
Step 4
Constraint

Bottleneck check

Find the constraint that can keep the thesis alive or break it.

  • Name the scarce node.
  • Downgrade if the constraint fails to confirm.
Step 6
Validation

Review loop

Close the thesis with confirmation and invalidation checks.

  • Define the next observable signpost.
  • Keep the break case visible.
Scenario map
Origin event → Trade-imbalance release path
Active

The latest thesis update is still being prepared.

Structural inference

Trade-imbalance release path

Evidence quality Strong - 84/100 19 items - 1 sources - trade_policy
Learning prior Caution - trade_policy 11 reviews; confirmed 0, mixed 0, broken 11. Require stronger fresh evidence before upgrading this frame.
Red-team check Contested - 66/100

The evidence may be better explained by Energy-security pressure rather than Trade-imbalance release path.

Discipline: Do not upgrade the thesis unless the next 72 hours clearly separate the lead path from the competing frame.

Downgrade the thesis if trade language cools, bilateral negotiations absorb the pressure, or deficit data improves without policy escalation. Day 69 of Middle East conflict — U.S., Iran Trade Fire as Trump Insists Fragile Truce Still Holds OPEC Fracture: UAE's Exit Signals New Era of Oil Volatility
Forecast contract Next 24-72 hours

Over the next 72 hours, does Trade-imbalance release path remain the lead structural path?

Base 60% Extension 21% Break 19%
Next check Recheck inside 4 hours Risk lock
Posterior 46 / 15 / 39 Base / extension / break
Signposts 1/5 confirmed thin
Red team Contested 66/100 Energy-security pressure
Delta tape Steady since last run
Base 46% 0
Extension 15% 0
Break 39% 0
Signposts 0

Base 0, extension 0, break 0. Signposts 0 confirmed. Coverage score 0; 0 new evidence items.

Coverage 0 Loop Risk_lock
Trajectory memory Trajectory steady / 5 runs

Across 5 runs: base 0, extension 0, break 0; signposts 0, coverage 0. 0/5 runs stayed 72H clean.

Base 0
Break 0
Signposts 0
Coverage 0
Now 46/39 1 sp / 76 cv T-1 46/39 1 sp / 76 cv T-2 46/39 1 sp / 76 cv T-3 46/39 1 sp / 76 cv T-4 46/39 1 sp / 76 cv
Calibration ledger Calibration caution / 71 reviews
Avg score 34.7/100
Confirmed 0
Broken 64
Calibration 0.642

Across 71 closed 72H reviews, broken cases exceed confirmed cases (64 broken vs 0 confirmed). The engine should require stronger fresh evidence.

0 pending windows 41 awaiting review 41 windows ready for review Raise the evidence bar before upgrading similar frames.
Ready now Hormuz-Driven Energy Inflation Regime: Structural Supply Shock Over Cyclical Risk Ready now Hormuz Supply Imbalance Triggers Global Energy Inflation Regime Shift Ready now Hormuz-Driven Energy Inflation Regime: Structural Supply Risk Overriding Cyclical Demand Signals
energy_security Caution / 49 reviews / score 34.4 trade_policy Caution / 17 reviews / score 37.3 macro_stress Caution / 5 reviews / score 29.0
Integrity gate Horizon watch / 100% kept
Horizon Horizon watch
Evidence 100% kept
Posterior Locked
Loop Ready

No weak evidence links were rejected in this run.

Invalidation
Coverage gate Regional watch / 76/100
Sources 1
Regions 3
US 8
China 3

1 source rails and 3 mapped regions support this thesis; US present, China present, 5 unmapped.

Region mix United States 8 / Middle East 6 / China 3
Source mix MKT_BIG 19
Posterior update Observe
Base 46% Extension 15% Break 39%

Do not upgrade until the next 72 hours reduce break-case pressure.

Strong evidence shifts probability away from break case. Single-source evidence raises fragility. Red-team pressure makes the break case materially more plausible.
Operator loop Risk lock - Recheck inside 4 hours

Do not upgrade until the next 72 hours reduce break-case pressure.

High-touch loop until break-case pressure cools. Returning at the next check updates posterior odds, signpost status, and the 72H review memory for Trade-imbalance release path.
missing Verify Tariff language No fresh evidence has confirmed this signpost yet.
locked Upgrade only on extension proof The path extends if Domestic manufacturing begins to confirm the second-order transmission.
watch Break-case guardrail The thesis breaks if trade language cools, bilateral negotiations absorb the pressure, or deficit data improves without policy escalation inside the next 72 hours.
contested Challenge the main thesis The evidence may be better explained by Energy-security pressure rather than Trade-imbalance release path.
Scenario cockpit Base / extension / break
Base path 46%

Trade-imbalance release path remains active while Trade deficit data keeps confirming the path.

Prior 60% -> posterior 46%
Extension path 15%

The path extends if Domestic manufacturing begins to confirm the second-order transmission.

Prior 21% -> posterior 15%
Break path 39%

The thesis breaks if trade language cools, bilateral negotiations absorb the pressure, or deficit data improves without policy escalation inside the next 72 hours.

Prior 19% -> posterior 39%
Signpost matrix 1/5 confirmed
Confirmed Trade deficit data Trump–Xi Beijing Summit: “Managed Stability” With Trade Signals and Geopolitical Red Lines
Missing Tariff language No fresh evidence has confirmed this signpost yet.
Missing Import-sensitive sectors No fresh evidence has confirmed this signpost yet.
Missing Export controls No fresh evidence has confirmed this signpost yet.

The thesis needs fresh signpost confirmation before upgrading.

Decision rule: Keep the thesis active for the next 72 hours only if at least two leading indicators confirm; downgrade immediately if trade language cools, bilateral negotiations absorb the pressure, or deficit data improves without policy escalation.

72H review Awaiting review

The 72H window has closed; the next review cycle will score this contract.

Learning note: Run the review cycle to update the learning memory.

Early signal

Trade deficit pressure and industrial-policy language are moving from data into policy risk.

Pressure source

The political system needs a visible mechanism to respond to import dependence and domestic capacity loss.

Likely release path

Tariffs, export controls, supply-chain localization, and trade negotiations become the likely release path.

Transmission

Trade imbalance -> political pressure -> tariff/export-control risk -> reshoring and supply-chain repricing.

Observation chain
Trade deficit data Tariff language Import-sensitive sectors Export controls Supply-chain relocation
Potential beneficiary chain
Domestic manufacturing Supply-chain security Logistics rerouting Industrial automation

This follows the 2015-2016 style of reading trade imbalance and US industrial pressure into later trade-conflict risk.

Evidence basis: Active structural counts: trade policy 2, macro stress 1, energy security 2, AI compute 0. Evidence quality strong (84/100): 19 items across 1 sources; leading structural bucket trade_policy with counts {'ai_compute': 0, 'trade_policy': 2, 'macro_stress': 1, 'energy_security': 2}.

Invalidation: Downgrade if trade language cools, bilateral negotiations absorb the pressure, or deficit data improves without policy escalation.

Scenario impact map
Macro Trade pressure can keep inflation and industrial-policy risk alive even when headline growth looks mixed.
Industry Import-sensitive sectors, domestic manufacturing, logistics rerouting, and automation are the first transmission layers.
Assets Track tariff-exposed equities, reshoring beneficiaries, supply-chain security, logistics routes, and industrial automation.
Causal chain
Trade deficit or import-dependence data creates political pressure Tariff and export-control language becomes the visible release mechanism Import-sensitive sectors and supply-chain routes reprice first Reshoring, automation, and supply-chain security become the beneficiary chain if policy hardens
Next triggers
Pending event 2026-04-07
Consensus read

Latest thesis update

The latest thesis update is still being prepared.
Risk read
Pending
Scenario simulation

Trade imbalance 72H policy-release thesis

The latest thesis update is still being prepared.
Scenario tags
Trade imbalance Tariff risk Export controls Reshoring Supply-chain security AI compute
Validation and risk
Confirmation signals
No confirmation signals are defined yet.
Invalidation signals
No invalidation signals are defined yet.
Regime shift
Regime shift triggers are still being assembled.
Crowding note

Waiting for the next crowding sample.

Review cadence

Keep the thesis under watch until the next validation window.

Evidence log

The public terminal keeps only the evidence chain needed to explain why this thesis exists and which facts should confirm or break it next.

Origin record
This evidence group is still being assembled.
Supporting record
This evidence group is still being assembled.