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Polymarket 事件覆盖诊断

输入一个关键词，直接比对实时市场、当前源过滤词、watchlist 事件规则和本地入库结果，快速判断“为什么没被纳入”。

Iran ground troops Israel Iran war Hormuz war
当前源

模式：polymarket

主端点：https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets

回退端点：${OVERSEAS_FETCHER_URL}/api/feed/polymarket

include 34 exclude 27 limit 240 发现模式 gamma-api
诊断概览
实时匹配 100
当前会纳入 6
被 include 卡住 0
被 exclude 卡住 94
本地已入库 12
命中事件规则 100
war
结论
  • 有市场会被 exclude 词挡住；如果还是误伤，优先检查 exclude 命中的具体词。
  • 这组市场已经命中了 watchlist 事件规则，后续会参与推演引擎里的概率市场确认层。
  • 外部抓取搜索失败，已回退到 Gamma API 列表扫描：war: [Errno 111] Connection refused

外部抓取搜索失败，已回退到 Gamma API 列表扫描：war: [Errno 111] Connection refused

跟踪中的 Polymarket 事件
美国地面部队进入伊朗 油价上破 100 中东冲突升级 伊以全面战争 霍尔木兹受阻 美联储利率路径 中美贸易摩擦 AI资本开支周期
实时市场命中
Question Prob Query Include / Exclude Event Match Reason
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
07/20 01:49
 94.2% war
IN us / trade / markets / war
OUT -
 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期 当前源过滤会纳入这条市场。
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
07/20 01:49
 0.3% war
IN us / trade / markets / war
OUT -
 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期 当前源过滤会纳入这条市场。
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
07/20 01:49
 0.2% war
IN us / trade / markets / war
OUT -
 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期 当前源过滤会纳入这条市场。
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?
07/20 01:49
 0.2% war
IN us / trade / markets / war
OUT -
 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期 当前源过滤会纳入这条市场。
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
07/20 01:49
 0.1% war
IN us / trade / markets / war
OUT -
 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期 当前源过滤会纳入这条市场。
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
07/20 01:49
 0.1% war
IN us / trade / markets / war
OUT -
 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期 当前源过滤会纳入这条市场。
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
07/20 01:49
 50.0% war
IN us / trade / markets / war / ceasefire
OUT president / election / campaign / nfl / delay
 中东冲突升级 / 伊以全面战争 / 美联储利率路径 / AI资本开支周期 被 exclude 词拦截：president / election / campaign / nfl / delay
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
07/20 01:49
 50.0% war
IN us / trade / markets / war / ceasefire
OUT campaign / nfl / delay
 中东冲突升级 / 伊以全面战争 / 美联储利率路径 / AI资本开支周期 被 exclude 词拦截：campaign / nfl / delay
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
07/20 01:49
 50.0% war
IN china / us / trade / markets / war / ceasefire
OUT election / campaign / nfl / delay
 中东冲突升级 / 伊以全面战争 / AI资本开支周期 被 exclude 词拦截：election / campaign / nfl / delay
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
07/20 01:49
 51.0% war
IN us / trade / markets / war / ceasefire
OUT campaign / nfl / delay
 中东冲突升级 / 伊以全面战争 / AI资本开支周期 被 exclude 词拦截：campaign / nfl / delay
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
07/20 01:49
 50.0% war
IN us / trade / markets / war / ceasefire
OUT campaign / nfl / delay
 中东冲突升级 / 伊以全面战争 / AI资本开支周期 被 exclude 词拦截：campaign / nfl / delay
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
07/20 01:49
 49.8% war
IN us / trade / markets / war / ceasefire
OUT campaign / nfl / delay
 中东冲突升级 / 伊以全面战争 / AI资本开支周期 被 exclude 词拦截：campaign / nfl / delay
本地已入库结果
Title Published Event Match
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? 04/10 19:41 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House press briefing? 04/10 18:08 中东冲突升级 / 伊以全面战争
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? 04/10 17:18 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in April? 04/10 00:32 中东冲突升级
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? 04/09 23:02 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? 04/09 20:19 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? 04/09 18:28 中东冲突升级
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? 04/09 17:16 中东冲突升级 / 霍尔木兹受阻 / AI资本开支周期
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? 04/09 13:08 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? 04/09 07:13 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? 04/09 07:13 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? 04/09 05:24 中东冲突升级 / AI资本开支周期
最近已入库的 Polymarket 条目